Planning for the unknown

This will be part of a series of articles dealing with preparedness.  With winter storms approaching much of the Eastern US and a holiday weekend approaching it is a great time to review basic concepts for being prepared.

Whether you believe in a zombie apocalypse or just want to be prepared for the next large scale power outrage, having a plan and some basic items is critical.  What you basic needs are doesn't change and many of the basic three - food, water and shelter are rathe generic for any type of disaster.

Your first step is to take stock of your potential threats.  I call this the threat analysis.  Every location is subject to a different threat analysis. I like to break this down further into natural, man made and technological disasters.  Natural would be anything like hurricanes, wildfires, floods, tornados, earthquakes and the like.  Man made could be as simple as a car hitting a critical utility pole, to a terrorist attack consisting of a dirty bomb, to a civil unrest and riot situation.  Technological can be caused by either of the previous two types but lies more in a failure of critical infrastructures and technologies we all depend on.  Examples include cell phones, electricity and running clean water.

Hurricanes Katrina, Sandy and Irene all have taught us not to take for granted getting 'help' quickly and how severe the damage may be.  Those living with the risk of tornado or earthquake know all too well how quickly it can all change in mere seconds.

So a few reminders.  Our government- both local, county, state and federal have some responsibility to managing disasters, responding to them and providing support from them.  We as citizens cannot wholly rely on them to support us.  For a host of reasons, aid may be delayed by hours, days or even weeks.  While your issue is the center of your world, there are hundreds of other immediate situations and limited resources to deal with them all.  Even a simple winter storm can delay critical services like EMS, fire and police response.

Threat Analysis
●Identify most common disasters that occur●Identify possible hazards with most severe impact●Consider recent or historical impacts●Identify susceptible locations in the community for specific hazards●Consider what to expect from disruption of services

From this you can start to develop a plan of what you need to keep you and your family protected. You may have a zombie defense plan or merely weather related plans, but should the unexpected happen, any plan will benefit you and your family. You should now develop a disaster plan.  This is a written plan detailing the basics of what you need to do for the various threats you felt needed to be addressed.  Some questions to ask are:
●Where will you meet family members? ●Who is your out-of-State “check-in” contact?●Will you have an extended stay? Shelter in place? Evacuate?●How will you escape your home? Workplace? School? ●What route (and several alternates) will you use to evacuate your neighborhood?●Do you have transportation?●Did you practice your plan?

These are just some basic questions to ask yourself.
Consider special needs cases like sick and infirm, chidden, elderly, and pets.  These factors should be tarn into account. You should have easy access to important documents like passports, wills, banking information, property lists, insurance papers, mortgage documents, birth certificates, etc.  Often a digital and encrypted off site storage can provide an excellent backup.  Do not rely on home protection alone, or even keeping them in a safe deposit box.  In a large scale disaster that safe deposit box may be unavailable. 

The three main killers in a disaster are shelter, water and food.  You cannot survive long without all three.  You can plan to shelter in place - your home or apartment, but you have to have backup plans in the case of home loss, or having to evacuate.  Your vehicle is another shelter in place option.  Getting stuck in the snow along an interstate with 3 kids is a problem.  For an hour or two you may just have some frayed nerves.  For 8 hours you have real needs for bathroom, food and possibly medical needs.

The first step after your disaster plan is your disaster kit.  Keep one in your home, vehicle and place of business.  The primary and most extensive should be the one in your home.
 1. Important documents and cash.
2. Water - 1 gallon per person per day for 5 days minimum.
3. Means of filtering additional water and storage. A simple hand filter, bleach, etc.
4. Non-perishable food for the family for 5 days minimum and means to prepare it.
5. Season and disaster specific clothing and footwear.
6 Medications and personal items.
7.Battery powered flashlight and radio with spare batteries
8. First Aid kit
9. Signal Whistle for help
10. Dust mask, heavy gloves
11. Wrench and simple tools to turn off utilities and perform basic functions
12. Manual can opener
13. Written disaster plan with contact numbers
14. Something to do - books, dominoes chess.

Keep in mind the Katrina disaster lasted for week.  Hurricane Sandy lasted for days before services returned to normal. 

Ask yourself could you and your family survive with no power (including heat, water, refrigeration, etc.) for the next 7 days? What if you couldn't purchase any goods for the next 2 weeks? This is possible if there was an infrastructure problem or computer problem with the Nation's telecom and payment processing.  Hurricane Sandy was cash only for a full week in most places.  If the local grocery store and pharmacy couldn't accept debit or credit cards would you ave cash on hand?

These are just some simple questions to make you think and start planning.  Subsequent posts will detail more specifically what steps you take to get on the road to basic preparedness levels.

FEMA suggests the following at a minimum:

FAMILY SUPPLY LIST

Ready Kids & The Federal Emergency Management Agency present:

Family Supply List

Emergency Supplies:
Water, food, and clean air are important things to have if an emergency happens. Each family or individual's kit should be customized to meet specific needs, such as medications and infant formula. It should also be customized to include important family documents.

Recommended Supplies to Include in a Basic Kit:
- Water, one gallon of water per person per day, for drinking and sanitation
- Food, at least a three-day supply of non-perishable food
- Battery-powered radio and a NOAA Weather Radio with tone alert, and extra batteries for both
- Flashlight and extra batteries
- First Aid kit
- Whistle to signal for help
- Infant formula and diapers, if you have an infant
- Moist towelettes, garbage bags and plastic ties for personal sanitation
- Dust mask or cotton t-shirt, to help filter the air
- Plastic sheeting and duct tape to shelter-in-place
- Wrench or pliers to turn off utilities
- Can opener for food (if kit contains canned food)

Clothing and Bedding:
If you live in a cold weather climate, you must think about warmth. It is possible that the power will be out and you will not have heat. Rethink your clothing and bedding supplies to account for growing children and other family changes. One complete change of warm clothing and shoes per person, including:
- A jacket or coat
- Long pants
- A long sleeve shirt
- Sturdy shoes
- A hat and gloves
- A sleeping bag or warm blanket for each person

Family Supply List (continued)

Below are some other items for your family to consider adding to its supply kit. Some of these items, especially those marked with a * can be dangerous, so please have an adult collect these supplies.
- Emergency reference materials such as a first aid book or a print out of the information on www.ready.gov
- Rain gear
- Mess kits, paper cups, plates and plastic utensils
- Cash or traveler's checks, change
- Paper towels
- Fire Extinguisher
- Tent
- Compass
- Matches in a waterproof container*
- Signal flare*
- Paper, pencil
- Personal hygiene items including feminine supplies
- Disinfectant*
- Household chlorine bleach* - You can use bleach as a disinfectant (diluted nine parts water to one part bleach), or in an emergency you can also use it to treat water. Use 16 drops of regular household liquid bleach per gallon of water. Do not use scented, color safe or bleaches with added cleaners.
- Medicine dropper
- Important Family Documents such as copies of insurance policies, identification and bank account records in a waterproof, portable container

That is a minimum recommendation.  A longer shelter in place situation would require additional food and water. Following a disaster it may be many days before basic services are restored.  And while helpers may start up in your area, wouldn't it be preferable to shelter in place at home?

Silver as an investment

Silver, known to chemists as Ag, is a precious metal.  It is precious to investors as well.  To begin silver’s story, lets discuss some physical properties of this magical metal.  It is a relatively soft, lustrous metal.  It has the highest electrical and thermal conductivity of any metal, making it very useful in commercial application and electronics. Silver nitrate was heavily used in film and processing, and as that industry has declines it can commonly be found in solar photovoltaic panels. It of course polishes nicely and is very shiny, which makes it an excellent material for jewelry, art and coin.

Throughout history silver has been traded and horded among various cultures.  It has been used as currency dating back to 700 BC and was a staple of the Roman Empire monetary system. In the United States silver has been in much of the early coins produced until the 1960’s.  Many of our early dimes, quarters, half dollars and silver dollars contained some quantity of silver.  In recent years the silver has been replaced by more base metals like copper and tin.

The price of silver has fluctuated throughout history reaching a price-adjusted peak of $1,300 peak in the 15^th century.  Most recently it’s hovered in the low $30.00 range. Generally the price of silver is volatile.  It’s not as rare as gold and it is actively being mined in several spots around the world. It is thought that the current world silver reserves are over 600,000 tons. 

What does this mean for the average person? I believe that the average person should consider silver a potential investment vehicle.  Silver as an investment can be had as old coins, often called ‘junk’ silver as they are pre 1964 silver coins that have little numismatic value, bullion, or official silver currency.  Some popular silver coins include the American Silver Eagle and the Canadian Maple Leaf.  Silver also comes in various size rounds; bars and even gram size or break away sheets. Silver, specifically bullion is traded in the precious metals market, and can be included in many financial products like IRAs. For example, Individual Retirement Account (IRA) participants may choose to include silver bullion coins and bars in their portfolio, provided that they are of a fineness of at least 99.9% silver. As a disclaimer, I offer no investment advice.  Investing of any sort has risks and you should always perform your own research, and consult with professionals before you invest. Personally I believe in diversification and hedging my portfolio with precious metals, various stocks and bonds prepares me for many future possible economic conditions.

Why silver? Well, its more affordable than gold for the average person.  At today’s (November 2012) rates, silver is about $34 an ounce while gold is $1750 an ounce.  Many arguments for gold versus silver and why one or the other could be made, but for some people holding something of material worth in their hand is what makes silver the better choice.  If I have $300 to spend I can hold a handful of silver coins or one small gold coin.  Psychologically it is more satisfying to hold close to ten ounces of silver. Also the economic forces that influence stocks and bonds are often not the same as those that influence precious metals.  This alone makes silver a good hedge in a balanced and diversified portfolio.

Inflation Resistance

Many like silver for its inflation resistance. Some say its inflation proof, but I will hedge my bets and stick with resistance. The purchasing power of the U.S. dollar has steadily declined over time and is expected to continue to do so. The United States faces a ‘fiscal cliff’ and massive budget shortfalls.  There is a moderate level of economic uncertainty.  One past and probably short-term future solution is for the Federal Reserve to request an injection of money into the system.  While often providing an illusionary boost to the economy this move has a depressing long-term impact on the value of the dollar. One of these impacts is inflation.  Inflation has many theoretical causes and there are many opposing viewpoints.  In general inflation is not desirable for an economy, especially one in a depressed economic time. Inflation has many causes, but consumers feel is as a loss of purchasing power.  Simply put, our money buys less. Silver has been considered inflation resistant because over the same period as the US dollar has declines in purchasing power, silver has risen in purchasing power.  One ounce of silver in 1950 sold for about 0.75 cents.  Today that same ounce is worth $34.00.  However adjusted for inflation that same 0.75 cents would be worth about $9.60 today. In 1950 you got a full ounce of silver, and in 2012 you could get 1/3 as much.

In the United States the Federal Reserve manages the US currency. The Congress established three key objectives for monetary policy—maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates—in the Federal Reserve Act. Based on current economic conditions a central bank has the ability to cause purposely or inadvertently an inflationary period, deflationary period or devalues their currency. ‘Devaluation’ means official lowering of the value of a country's currency within a fixed exchange rate system, by which the monetary authority formally sets a new fixed rate with respect to a foreign reference currency. In contrast, depreciation is used to describe a decrease in a currency's value (relative to other major currency benchmarks) due to market forces, not government or central bank policy actions.

Investing in silver is much more than hedging against inflation or currency devaluation.  It is also about diversification and having something tangible.  Most Americans get electronic deposit, use debit and credit cards and rarely if ever see cash.  The cash they do see is paper currency and few folks appreciate the heft of coins in their pocket or purse.  It is easy to loose sight of the value of these electronic intangible bits.  Sure, we can all balance a checkbook and know  $1000 comes in, and five bills later we have $200.  But with debit purchases, electronic transfers and credit cards, each new American generation is removed one more step from hard tangible currency. I know a few people who say they can keep just a debit card and have $5000 in their pocket. There is something to be said for possessing a tangible item of worth. Precious metals are useful in that silver due to its lower cost is capable of being used to possess a moderate wealth in a small space.  While someone can carry a debit card linked to a $5000 account, $5000 in gold is a few small coins and $5000 in silver could fit in a pocket still.

What to buy – coins, junk, rounds, bars?  In my opinion the key is source and price.  Sad to say, you can get scammed.  Disreputable souls will try to sell you fake silver and gold and pass off counterfeit as real. Always purchase from reputable dealers and sources.  If you are looking for junk silver, then head to an established local coin shop who is a member of the various numismatic organizations, and even the local BBB.  Buy local and support local.  The US Mint, and Royal CanadianMint, among others sell direct.  Many reputable silver companies also sell direct as a few dollars over spot.  Provident Precious Metals, Kesef Silver, APMEX, NorthwestTerritorial Mint are all possible sources for your silver purchase. When investing in silver – or making any investment, for that matter – you should always consult with well known, reputable brokers, bankers, financial advisors or dealers. Prior to making any investment, you should make sure the seller is capable of delivering exactly what it is selling, and is providing you with the conditions under which it stands ready to buy back your silver.

Good luck and happy silver collecting.